Warming drives poleward range contractions of Beringian endemic plant species at high latitudes

Abstract Aim Species are expected to disperse poleward in response climate change. For species that endemic the high latitudes, this implies many future would face a “no‐where‐to‐go” situation as they currently occupying northernmost portion of continent. Further, because endemism may arise from combination physical barriers, and geological history, persistence require spatial matching multiple environmental factors within limited dispersal space. Thus, it is not clear how might spatially adjust their distributions change whether there refugia for these species. Location Northwest North America. Taxa Plants. Time Period Current (2040). Methods We used ensemble bioclimatic models evaluate drivers directional patterns 66 American Beringian amphi‐Beringian occurring Alaska Yukon. explored pattern richness, losses across region. Results More than 80% showed northward shifts latitudinal centroids under intermediate warming shift range by more 140 km on average 2040. Additionally, 60% were projected experience contractions up 20% have potential expand ranges 100%. Main Conclusions Suitable habitat northwest America decline significantly, especially Arctic tundra. Although identified several change, at latitude elevation, be able colonize new habitats own and/or capitalize sufficiently situ remains pertinent conservation question.